
With only 2 days until the first trade deadline of the MLB season (first because after the deadline players can still be traded using the waiver until Aug. 31st) many teams have already made significant moves to bolster their team for a playoff run.
July 9th: Seattle Mariners trade Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe to the Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak and prospects Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson
July 25th: Arizona Diamondbacks trade Dan Haren to the LA Angels for Joe Sanders and prospects Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and a player to be named
July 29th: Houston Astros trade Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies for J.A Happ and two prospects to be named
Most analysts focus on the trade deadline as a chance for teams fighting for a playoff spot to add more veteran assets, increasing their chances of winning in the playoffs. While this is true, journalists get too caught up in the excitement of the playoff race and praise the GMs who make these kinds of deals, no matter the impact it may have on a team’s long term success. This short sighted mentality of journalists and many major league GMs make the trade deadline the perfect opportunity for savvy GMs to make deals that, in retrospect, appear extremely one sided. Just look at a couple of the big trade deadline moves from 2009:
July 31st, 2009: San Diego Padres trade Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox for Clayton Richards, Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell, and Dexter Carter
This trade is hard to bash because, in my opinion, Jake Peavy is one of the most talented pitchers in the league. Peavy has a career 1.19 WHIP and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.1, which outweighs his career winning percentage of 58% (hindered as a result of playing on bad Padres teams). However, Ken Williams gave up WAY too much to get Peavy, who has been injured for the majority of his White Sox career. Clayton Richards, 8-5 for the division leading Padres this year, has a WHIP of just 1.36 and at just 26 is still developing. Aaron Poreda, only 23, has a WHIP of 1.29 and a K/BB ratio of 2 over three seasons of AA and Adam Russell, 27, has an identical WHIP of 1.29 and K/BB ratio of 2 in three seasons of AAA.
July 31st, 2009: Seattle Mariners trade Jarrod Washburn to the Detroit Tigers for Luke French and Mauricio Robles
This trade is so one-sided it is hard to understand what David Dombrowski, GM of the Tigers, was thinking when he put this deal through. At the time the Tigers were at the head of their division but only had a 1.5 game lead, so I assume the move for Washburn was to round out their starting rotation. The result: Washburn went 1-3 with an ERA of 7.33, a WHIP of 1.56, and a K/BB ratio of 1.3 and at the end of the season retired. Essentially the Tigers gave up promising young pitchers for half a year of bad pitching, and there was nothing to suggest Washburn would be worth the price. Washburn had a career WHIP of 1.3 (average) and a K/BB ratio of 1.93 (below average).
Clearly there is a market for GMs to exploit teams desperate to load up for a playoff run. It may seem, in the short run, that teams like the Tigers and White Sox, both in contention in the AL Central, are better teams as a result of acquisitions to bring in veterans. However, if they continue to sell off their best prospects in order to do so, the team’s long term chances are hindered. On the flip side, Tampa Bay acquired a number of the key players on their current roster by taking advantage of teams who were willing to part with their top prospects for veterans. Tampa Bay acquired Ben Zobrist in 2007 for Aubrey Huff, Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in 2007 for Delmon Young, and Sean Rodriguez and Alexander Torres in 2009 for Scott Kazmir.
While not immediately noticeable, a team that can make significant strides towards future success if they are smart leading up to the trade deadline. This year there are two teams that I think can benefit greatly from trades at the deadline, both with a number of highly desired players, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Toronto Blue Jays
Tradable players: Lyle Overbay (.322 OBP, .736 OPS), Jose Bautista (.366 OBP, .951 OPS), John Buck (.310 OBP, .818 OPS), Kevin Gregg (23 SV), Scott Downs (1.02 WHIP, 2.34 ERA), Jason Frasor (8 HLD, 41 K)
Despite a record of 53-49 the Blue Jays are 12 games back in their division and 10 games behind the Rays (wild card). Baring a miracle finish, they will not make the playoffs this year. However, they have a number of players that playoff bound teams are asking about.
Lyle Overbay is the least likely to be traded. Overbay, a career .359 OBP hitter who averages 32 doubles a season, is the type of 1B or DH that a playoff team would love to have heading into the postseason. However, Overbay is a class A free agent and the Jays will receive two supplemental first round picks if they let him go on the open market rather than via trade. Brett Wallace is the future 1B for the Jays so Overbay won’t be back, the only variable is: draft picks or players?
Jose Bautista has been the hottest player in the league since the All-Star break, and was pretty amazing in the first half as well. A the plate Bautista has a .366 OBP and .951 OPS with 30 HR and 75 RBI, throw in that he is one of the best right fielders in the game and can also play 3B and Bautista is the most desirable batter available this trade deadline. The Blue Jays will have to go through arbitration this offseason with Bautista or re-sign him to a long term contract, which will likely cost more than the Jays are willing to pay. The most likely suitor for Bautista are the Phillies, who are in major buy mode. The Jays will likely demand one of either Domonic Brown or Jonathon Singleton as well as a couple other prospects in the deal and will fill Bautista’s spot in the lineup with Travis Snider.
John Buck was signed in the offseason with little competition from other teams. Buck was signed to a one year $2 million deal and has responded with one of the best seasons of his career. At the end of the season Buck will likely be graded as a class B free agent, which is a sign that they will likely let him walk in the offseason if they don’t trade him. The Reds, Tigers, and Red Sox have shown the most interest in Buck but with both Varitek and Martinez on the DL, Boston seems like the most likely destination in a trade including Scott Downs. It has been rumored that Boston is willing to offer Oscar Tejeda (Boston’s best prospect) for Downs, and if Buck is included in the deal they will likely throw in a few more top prospects.
Finally, Kevin Gregg and Jason Frasor are getting a lot of attention recently from teams that need middle relievers for the playoffs. Kevin Gregg has been solid for the Jays, converting 23 of 27 save opportunities, and Jason Frasor has been a reliable reliever for years. The two are also class B and class A free agents respectively, which will sweeten the deal for the other team.
If the Blue Jays can trade at least 2-3 players and get a wealth of talented prospects back they will set themselves up to be a force in the AL East by the middle of the decade. Instantly Snider, Wallace, and J.P Arencibia will be able to replace the departed bats, with Kyle Draybek and Josh Roenicke replacing the departed pitchers.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Traded: 1) Dan Haren to the LA Angels for Joe Sanders and prospects Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and a player to be named 2) Conor Jackson to the Oakland A’s for Sam Demel
Tradable Players: Edwin Jackson (6-10, no hitter), Chad Qualls (12 SV), Chris Snyder (.351 OBP, .778 OPS), Adam LaRoche (.331 OBP, .779 OPS)
In a little bit less detail this time!
The Diamondbacks are clearly out of contention this year (37-64). However, despite their record the Diamondbacks have some young talent: Upton, Young, Parra, Reynolds, and Montero. If they can trade a few more veterans for top prospects they might be good in a couple years.
Edwin Jackson has had an off year, with the exception of a no hitter early in the season. However, there are a number of teams who value his arm and see that he has kind of stuff that, if consistent, could make him a top pitcher. Reports are the Nationals want Jackson and are willing to trade Adam Dunn, however it is more likely that the Diamondbacks are going to request one of their younger pitching prospects, Drew Storen of Trevor Holder, in addition.
Chad Qualls and Chris Snyder are two players that GM, Jerry Dipoto, has stated he wants to trade before the deadline. Both will get very little in return with their current production, however they might get a long shot prospect that pans out. It is reported that the Red Sox are after Snyder to shore up their catching, which is missing Varitek and Martinez.
Finally, Adam LaRoche is a veteran bat with a career .341 OBP and .828 OPS, which will likely demand one or two quality prospects from a contending team. The White Sox and Angels are both interested in LaRoche.
With some pieces to build around, namely their outfield of Chris Young; Justin Upton; and Gerardo Parra, the Diamondbacks can take some serious steps towards being competitive if they can get some young talent this trade deadline.
- KC Roberts
Tags: MLB, Trade Deadline